• phil cantor/@osgphil

The College Football Playoff Scenarios Nobody Will Agree With



We are officially knee deep in November football with most teams having but three regular season games left. Those in contention will likely have a "Conference Title" game to play but we are about to hear and see the jockeying for Playoff Position begin in earnest.


If you are a fan of the game--you already know LSU beat Alabama this week in the Game of the Century this Week. In fact despite the close score, it was a pretty convincing win in Tuscaloosa---something not easily or often done. In MY opinion, it should knock the Crimson Tide out of Playoff contention.


But it likely won't....


Here are the scenarios for teams currently with a legit shot at making the Playoff and what likely will happen:


--LSU is in the drivers seat. Win out, they are in the SEC Championship game vs. Georgia where the Tigers will be favored to win. The toughest regular season game left is vs. Texas A&M.


--Ohio State is about to go through their version of a gauntlet after disposing of Rutgers this coming week. The Buckeyes finish by hosting an overrated Penn State and go to Michigan. They'll be favored in both of those games, but by no means are they "Gimme's"....


--Clemson has little to be concerned about. The ACC is awful and finishing with Wake Forest and a trip to South Carolina should not strike fear in anyone's heart. Nor should a potential ACC title game vs. well, anyone in the mediocre ACC Coastal


--Georgia has no room for error. Run the table, the Dawgs are in even with the inexplicable loss to a crappy South Carolina. Lose a game and enjoy a Pick 6 Bowl Game. Period. A trip to Auburn is going to be a challenge, survive and they'll be a one-loss team vs. LSU with a chance.....


--Alabama is, well, Alabama. The super soft schedule is should be held against them but it won't. The Tide were not battle tested and LSU took advantage of a surprisingly soft defense. But---'Bama only has Auburn to worry about in the Iron Bowl....


--Oregon also has a shot and they should be considered. Sure, they lost at the buzzer to Auburn at a neutral site in game 1, but they've gotten better each week. They'll be favored to win out and face a tough Utah team in the Pac 12 title game. A 12-1, Duck team should be worthy IMO....


--Minnesota technically has a shot. The Gophers have tough games with Iowa and Wisconsin left, I'd be surprised if they win out--but also didn't think they'd be undefeated right now. Win the Big 10, they're in....


--Oklahoma will get points because they're Oklahoma. I don't think the Sooners are as good as the first six teams listed here. The got LUCKY to escape with a win vs. Iowa State and none of their final 3 games are gimmes (Baylor, TCU, Okie State).....win out, they'll be considered but they have to win out....


Other possibilities: Baylor and Utah.....


Now...all that being said, here's how I think it will play out. And I say it knowing full well at least one--if not more of these teams will gag at least once down the stretch.


LSU will win out. Georgia is not beating the Tigers this year even with a very good defense. The Dawgs don't have enough fire power to keep up. LSU is in the Playoff....


Ohio State will win out (barely). Michigan will give them fits but the Buckeyes will have their first real tests of the season. Minnesota or whomever isn't beating them in the Big 10 title game. Ohio State is in...


Clemson is in. We have no way of knowing whether they can compete with any of the top 5 teams, but they aren't losing to anyone left on their schedule. Ain't happening...


This is where it gets dicey:


I think if Oregon wins out, they should be Team #4, but I don't think the vote will go that way. They need Utah to win out too so a win over the Utes would matter. A lot.


Alabama should be on the outside looking in. But I'm not convinced it will happen. They likely will win out and an 11-1 Nick Saban team will be more appealing to the committee even if they aren't that good.


Oklahoma will also bypass Oregon if they win out. They shouldn't. But they will. I think they beat Baylor in the regular season and then again in the Big 12 title game. It could easily be enough.


Baylor, Minnesota and Utah have zero chance. Zero. Baylor won't win out and neither will the Gophers. Utah, the schedule is Alabama soft and that will keep them out.


These are the only teams with legitimate shots to be in the playoff. Period. If it plays out the way I think it will---there are going to be some pissed off Pac 12 folks. Oregon SHOULD be #4 if they win out, but the brand name isn't Alabama or Oklahoma and if either of those two teams win out, they'll be in.


It's the fatal flaw in a 4 team "Best Team" playoff in my opinion. Brand names get more points for being popular than being good and it always will be that way unless they expand this goofy system.


Nobody east of the Mississippi has seen Oregon since Week 1. It matters. Seeing the way teams are subjectively ranked over the course of a season reinforces the fact it is all about Brand Recognition and that is inherently fucked up.


But it is the world we live in. A world where everything on every level is about popularity and who can bring in the most money. It's not right, nor is it fair. It's only what we've become...so might as well get used to it.


#Life.....

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