• phil cantor/@osgphil

Don't Get Caught Up in Mock Draft Hype....



Yes, like many of you--I'm actually looking forward to the NFL Draft. No, unlike many, I don't believe most of what I read when it comes to the half-zillion versions of 3,112 website writers picks for where players will be picked.


Pretty much everyone who has had some sort of loose association with the NFL, written or talked about the league has made public who they think teams will draft. I'm not sure any of them have ever gotten it correct.


Yeah, sure, we know this year the Bengals are going to draft Joe Burrow, they've made it abundantly clear and outside of being offered half of another teams roster---there is no reason for that to change.


After that, who the heck knows....


You can guess and most have or will, some will get at least part of it right. According to what I could find on the Google, there are a few places where the accuracy of these self-professed prognosticators is tracked, most of these so-called "Experts" are about 50% right in their predictions and in many cases--much, much less.


Check out this list to see how your favorite Mock Drafter ranked...


Yet the art of the "Mock" has become a cottage industry and something practiced on a nearly year around basis. Honestly, I'm assuming most of this is done for the art of filling airtime or space on a website. It's something that if you do it enough times, will get people talking or debating the merits of said selections.


We all know there are experts who will tell you what teams need, what they should address or roles they should fill via the draft. That--with film study is not so hard to project. But how do you know if a team is being honest with their intent in the draft?


You can't be.


Most practice verbal misdirection on a daily basis. NFL Coaches and front office personnel are among the most paranoid people you'll ever meet and are convinced they should never tip their hand about anything. It's a belief not without some merit as the extent of spying or trying to gain an advantage has evolved to Spy Movie standards.


Listen, I'm not trying to be a party pooper here. I think the draft, particularly the beginning of the 1st round is always fun and entertaining to watch. All I'm saying is this: Don't buy the hype. Be a fan and enter with an open mind. Know that what the experts tell you is no guarantee of, well, anything.


I don't know about you---I'll be sitting in front of the TV Thursday night and probably try to follow on Friday and Saturday the best I can. I'm very curious to see what my Miami Dolphins do and would be stunned if we don't pick Tua Tagaliavoa but then again, someone could draft him before we get to Pick #5.


Then again, I'm no expert--I could be wrong....

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